Sweden host Poland at Friends Arena on Thursday at 21:45 (GMT+3) in this World Cup qualifying fixture.
Sweden have won 10 of their last 14 home games and look set to beat Poland in Stockholm.
Below is the full match preview, predictions and betting analysis.
Sweden vs Poland Tips
*Odds correct at the time of publication and subject to change.
Sweden vs Poland Odds
| Result | Odds |
|---|---|
| Sweden |
|
| Draw |
|
| Poland |
|
*Odds correct at the time of publication and subject to change.
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Sweden vs Poland Predictions
Sweden’s home run meets Poland’s recent drop
Sweden’s home record stands at 10 wins from their last 14 matches, and that run frames this qualifier in Stockholm. A 3-1 win over Ukraine in Valencia on Thursday adds a fresh result to that sequence, with Graham Potter overseeing a performance that pointed to a more settled side. That result came away from home, yet the return to Friends Arena brings a familiar setting where wins have been frequent across this stretch.
There is also a clear shift around the squad. The likes of Alexander Isak and Victor Gyokeres now sit in a more positive setting after Jon Dahl Tomasson’s difficult spell, and the recent win suggests a reset rather than a one-off. Tickets are selling quickly for this clash, which adds a typical home-game edge without changing the underlying numbers.
Poland’s recent outputs sit on a different line. Albania and Malta have both produced higher expected goals than Poland in their last two matches, including a 2-1 defeat to Albania and a 3-2 win over Malta where the opposition still led on xG. Poland averaged 17 shots per match in qualifying, but that volume has leaned heavily on long-range efforts and set pieces.
That mix leaves a gap between shot count and chance quality, and the latest results keep that gap visible. Sweden’s consistent home wins and the 3-1 result in Valencia point in one direction, while Poland’s recent matches pull the other way, so Sweden to win appeals at 2.05.
Tip: Sweden to Win @ with N/A
A narrow scoreline shaped by recent results
Poland’s last two matches both landed on one-goal margins, a 2-1 defeat to Albania and a 3-2 win over Malta. Sweden’s latest result also sits within that range, with the 3-1 victory over Ukraine showing a two-goal spread but still keeping the game competitive into the final stages. These scorelines cluster around tight margins rather than wide gaps.
Defensive moments have played a visible role. Jan Bednarek’s early error set the tone against Albania, while Tomasz Kędziora and Jakub Kiwior also had difficult evenings in that same game. Matty Cash added attacking width but repeatedly left space behind him, and Poland’s midfield lost too many duels before Piotr Zieliński’s strike pulled the score back to 2-1.
Sweden’s attacking side carries its own focus. Gyokeres arrives in strong form and is part of the headline duel with Robert Lewandowski, a pairing that shapes much of the attention around this game. That individual angle sits alongside team results rather than replacing them.
Recent results on both sides point toward games that stay within reach rather than opening up. Sweden 2-1 could be worth a look at 9.00.
Tip: Sweden 2-1 @ with N/A
