PAOK Thessaloniki host Celta Vigo at 19:45 GMT+3 on 19 February in the first leg of their Europa League play-off tie at Toumba Stadium.
Celta Vigo beat PAOK 3-1 in October in the Europa League league phase, and Celta Vigo win this first leg.
Below is the full match preview, predictions and betting analysis.
PAOK vs Celta Vigo Tips
*Odds correct at the time of publication and subject to change.
PAOK vs Celta Vigo Odds
| Result | Odds |
|---|---|
| PAOK |
|
| Draw |
|
| Celta Vigo |
|
*Odds correct at the time of publication and subject to change.
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PAOK vs Celta Vigo Predictions
Celta’s previous 3-1 win sets the tone again
Celta Vigo beat PAOK 3-1 in October during the Europa League league phase. That match produced a clear statistical edge. Celta generated 2.7 xG, while PAOK posted 0.75. The chance gap was significant across the ninety minutes.
Possession told the same story. Celta held 63% of the ball and dictated the tempo for long spells. They created nearly three times as many chances and consistently opened up the Greek defence. It was a controlled European performance built on volume and efficiency.
This is now the first leg of a Europa League play-off tie, and the venue shifts to Greece. Even so, the most recent head-to-head remains a direct reference point. A 3-1 result, supported by 2.7 xG and 63% possession, underlines the margin seen between the sides.
Celta also scored 15 goals across eight league-phase matches. That scoring return translates to just under two goals per game at this stage of the competition. The attacking output in Europe aligns with the earlier 3-1 result against PAOK.
Celta Vigo to Win at 2.80 reflects the away setting and their mixed domestic run, yet the previous 3-1 victory, the 2.7 to 0.75 xG gap and 63% possession frame another Celta success as a repeatable outcome over ninety minutes.
Tip: Celta Vigo to Win ( at N/A)
A two-goal margin fits the European scoring pattern
The October meeting finished 3-1 to Celta Vigo, and the underlying data showed how comfortably chances were created. An xG figure of 2.7 against PAOK’s 0.75 suggests sustained attacking pressure rather than isolated moments.
Across eight league-phase fixtures, Celta Vigo scored 15 goals. That output sits within a steady European range and supports the idea of them finding the net more than once in a tie of this level. It also reinforces the attacking consistency shown in the earlier head-to-head.
This first leg setting may produce a slightly tighter rhythm away from home, particularly in Greece. However, the previous 3-1 scoreline and the clear xG differential point toward a margin rather than a narrow one-goal edge.
A 2-0 away win remains compatible with the earlier statistical dominance, the 15 goals in eight league-phase matches, and the 2.7 xG generated against this opponent. The 13.00 quote attaches a defined shape to that two-goal pattern.
Tip: Celta Vigo 2-0 ( at N/A)
