Aston Villa host Leeds at Villa Park on Saturday at 17:00 GMT+3 in the Premier League.
Aston Villa have failed to win three of their last four matches, drawing one, and the points could be shared again in Birmingham.
Below is the full match preview, predictions and betting analysis.
Aston Villa vs Leeds Tips
*Odds correct at the time of publication and subject to change.
Aston Villa vs Leeds Odds
| Result | Odds |
|---|---|
| Aston Villa |
|
| Draw |
|
| Leeds |
|
*Odds correct at the time of publication and subject to change.
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Aston Villa vs Leeds Predictions
Villa Park stalemate fits both recent runs
Aston Villa have failed to win three of their last four matches, drawing one, and that sequence includes only two wins in their last six Premier League fixtures. At Villa Park the pattern is similar, with just one victory in their last four domestic games on this ground.
Leeds arrive with a different rhythm. Since switching tactics in December, Daniel Farke’s side have lost only two of 15 matches. That shift followed a 2-1 home defeat to Villa in November, their third loss in four at the time, which increased pressure on the German coach. A move to a three-at-the-back system with wing-backs and two forwards, first used at home to Chelsea two games later, steadied the run and losses became rare.
Draws now shape Leeds’ campaign. They have shared the points in eight of their last 14 matches in all competitions. Away from home they have taken draws against Brentford, Liverpool, Everton and Chelsea, all top-half sides, and also played out a 1-1 stalemate at the Stadium of Light just after Christmas when Sunderland were sixth and Leeds were 11th. Their FA Cup fourth-round tie on Sunday ended level before a penalty win over Villa’s rivals, achieved with a virtual second-string side, and the senior players return here.
Leeds sit with a six-point cushion above the drop zone and another point would keep that buffer intact. Villa, meanwhile, can move level on points with Manchester City in second place with a win, yet injuries to John McGinn, Aboubacar Kamara and Youri Tielemans have disrupted midfield continuity. Villa have been shut out only four times in the league since September but have kept just two clean sheets in their last 13 league games, which points to competitive scorelines rather than separation.
Eight draws in 14 for Leeds and three non-wins in four for Villa align with another level finish, and the 3.70 price reflects how frequently both sides land in that range.
Tip: Draw ( at N/A)
Rogers remains Villa’s decisive edge
Morgan Rogers scored twice in a 2-1 win at Elland Road in November, the same match that marked Leeds’ third defeat in four before their tactical reset. That brace underlined his role as Villa’s most direct threat in this fixture.
He has eight goals and five assists this season, leading Villa’s attacking output across competitions. Even with midfield injuries affecting the supply line, Rogers’ numbers hold steady and his involvement remains central in the final third.
Villa have scored in the vast majority of their league games since September, failing to do so only four times, and Rogers has often been at the heart of those productive spells. Leeds, for all their improved structure, have drawn eight of 14 and rarely shut games down entirely, which keeps individual scoring routes active.
Eight goals and five assists across the campaign, plus a previous brace in this head-to-head, keep Morgan Rogers firmly in the anytime scoring frame at 2.62.
Tip: Morgan Rogers to Score Anytime ( at N/A)
