Real Madrid and Borussia Dortmund face off once again under the lights of the MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford on Saturday, July 6 (kick-off 23:00 GMT+2) in the quarter-finals of the 2025 Club World Cup. A familiar fixture reignited on a new continent, this clash carries echoes of last season’s Champions League final — and Real Madrid will be aiming to write a similar script.
Here’s my Real Madrid vs Borussia Dortmund prediction and betting analysis for this matchup.
Real Madrid vs Borussia Dortmund Tips
- Real Madrid vs Borussia Dortmund: Real Madrid to win and under 4.5 goals ( at Livesport24)
- Real Madrid vs Borussia Dortmund: Vinicius Junior to have 1+ shots on target and be fouled 1+ times ( at Livesport24)
Real Madrid vs Borussia Dortmund Odds
| Result | Odds |
|---|---|
| Real Madrid |
|
| Draw |
|
| Borussia Dortmund |
|
*Odds correct at the time of publication and subject to change.
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Real Madrid vs Borussia Dortmund Prediction
Real Madrid: Familiar Opponent, Familiar Result?
Madrid step into this quarter-final carrying both history and momentum. Last season, they dismantled Dortmund 2-0 in the Champions League final after a 5-2 drubbing earlier in the group stage. Now, they return to face the same opposition in a new arena but with a similar sense of control.
Xabi Alonso has alternated between a 4-3-3 and 3-5-2 setup in the United States, searching for fluidity with a star-studded squad still adapting to his tactical imprint. Their narrow 1-0 victory over Juventus in the round of 16 showed resilience but also revealed that the machine is still warming up.
With Kylian Mbappé back in contention, Real's attacking balance may shift, but their superiority remains hard to question. A routine win seems likely — but don’t expect fireworks. With Madrid still fine-tuning their rhythm, backing them to win with under 4.5 goals offers value.
Tip: Real Madrid to win and under 4.5 goals ( at Livesport24)
Borussia Dortmund: Can They Rewrite the Script?
Dortmund return to a familiar nightmare. Real Madrid have been their recurring nemesis, and the gulf in quality remains wide. While the Germans boast unity and structure, they’ve struggled against elite sides, and the recent 2-0 loss in the Champions League final will still linger.
Their path to this quarter-final has been hard-fought, but they now face a Madrid side brimming with attacking talent. Even if Xabi Alonso rotates, Dortmund must contend with the likes of Vinicius Junior — a man who thrives under the spotlight.
Paddy Power has boosted odds on Vinicius having at least one shot on target and drawing at least one foul to 2.00. The numbers back it up: across four matches in the USA, Vinicius has logged 324 minutes, drawn seven fouls, and hit the target three times. Whether partnered with Garcia or flanked by Mbappé, the Brazilian remains central to Madrid’s offensive engine.
Tip: Vinicius Junior 1+ shots on target and to be fouled 1+ times ( at Livesport24)
Real Madrid vs Borussia Dortmund Projected Starting Lineups
Real Madrid
Thibaut Courtois (GK); Trent Alexander-Arnold, Antonio Rüdiger, Dean Huijsen; Fran García, Federico Valverde, Aurélien Tchouaméni, Arda Güler, Jude Bellingham; Vinícius Júnior, Gonzalo García.
Borussia Dortmund
Gregor Kobel (GK); Niklas Süle, Waldemar Anton, Ramy Bensebaini; Julian Ryerson, Pascal Groß, Marcel Sabitzer, Daniel Svensson; Karim Adeyemi, Serhou Guirassy, Julian Brandt.
