Carlos Alcaraz begins his title defence at the 2025 Wimbledon Championships with a first-round clash against Fabio Fognini on Monday, 30 June, on Centre Court. The reigning champion returns to the All England Club riding a wave of momentum after another Roland Garros triumph — and now chases a rare hat-trick on the grass. Fognini, meanwhile, may be writing the final chapter of his career on the sport’s grandest stage.
Here’s my Carlos Alcaraz vs Fabio Fognini prediction and betting analysis for this matchup.
Alcaraz vs Fognini Tips
- Carlos Alcaraz vs Fabio Fognini: Under 27.5 total games ( at Livesport24)
Alcaraz vs Fognini Odds
| Result | Odds |
|---|---|
| Carlos Alcaraz |
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| Fabio Fognini |
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*Odds correct at the time of publication and subject to change.
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Alcaraz vs Fognini Prediction: Champion returns with legacy on the line
Carlos Alcaraz returns to Centre Court as a two-time Wimbledon champion, with a third crown within reach — a feat that would place him in the company of legends. The 21-year-old arrives in imperious form, fresh off a dramatic five-set triumph over Jannik Sinner in the French Open final — the longest in Roland Garros history at 5 hours and 29 minutes. That win capped a clay-court season of relentless intensity, and now the Spaniard looks to carry that momentum onto the grass.
Alcaraz tuned up for SW19 by lifting the Queen’s Club title for a second time, extending his winning streak to 18 matches. His 2025 campaign boasts a 42-5 record, with 13 wins in his last 14 on grass — the sole loss coming against Jack Draper last season.
On the other side of the net stands Fabio Fognini, the World No. 130 and a mercurial talent whose swan song may be nearing. Playing in his 15th Wimbledon main draw, the Italian has dropped his last five matches and arrives winless from grass tune-ups in Stuttgart, Nottingham, and Mallorca. Though he matched his best Wimbledon result last year by reaching the third round, Fognini, now 38, looks a shadow of his prime.
The head-to-head tilts heavily in Alcaraz’s favour, with two straight-sets wins on clay in Rio. They've never clashed on grass, but with Fognini visibly slowing and Alcaraz peaking, there’s little suspense about the likely outcome. Expect the defending champ to dictate tempo early, carve open the baseline, and seal a swift victory under the Wimbledon sun.
Tip: Under 27.5 total games ( at Livesport24)
